Statistics of Extremes in Climate Change
نویسنده
چکیده
This short course covers the application of the statistical theory of extreme values to climate, in general, and to climate change, in particular. The statistical theory of extreme values is briefly reviewed, both the extremal types theorem with its application via the block maxima approach (i.e., fitting the generalized extreme value distribution) and the point process model with its application via the peaks over threshold approach (i.e., fitting Poisson and generalized Pareto distributions).
منابع مشابه
بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر روند نمایه های حدی بارش ایران زمین
Global changes in extremes of the climatic variables that have been observed in recent decades can only be accounted anthropogenic, as well as natural changes. Factors are considered, and under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing the frequency of some of these extreme events is likely to change (IPCC, 2007 Alexander et al., 2007). Folland et al. (2001) showed that in some regions both temperature a...
متن کاملThe survey of linkage between climate changes and desertification using extreme climate index software
Climate is the most important factor which control desertification .In order to detect climate changes in desert zones, time trend analysis is applied to extreme indices in Kashan station using extreme climate index software (ECIS). Results show significant trends in extreme indices during the past decade 1995-2004 and the pronounced warming is associated with a negative trend in cold extremes....
متن کاملStatistics of extremes in hydrology
The statistics of extremes have played an important role in engineering practice for water resources design and management. How recent developments in the statistical theory of extreme values can be applied to improve the rigor of hydrologic applications and to make such analyses more physically meaningful is the central theme of this paper. Such methodological developments primarily relate to ...
متن کاملStochastic Models of Climate Extremes: Theory and Observations
One very important topic in climatology, meteorology, and related fields is the detailed understanding of extremes in a changing climate. There is broad consensus that the most hazardous effects of climate change are due to a potential increase (in frequency and/or intensity) of extreme weather and climate events. Extreme events are by definition rare, but they can have a significant impact on ...
متن کاملIdentifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES database.
Climate analogues, also denoted Space-For-Time, may be used to identify regions where the present climatic conditions resemble conditions of a past or future state of another location or region based on robust climate variable statistics in combination with projections of how these statistics change over time. The study focuses on assessing climate analogues for Denmark based on current climate...
متن کامل